000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130253
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN OCT 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
NEWLY DEVELOPED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FINALLY BROKE OUT
AWAY FROM STILL MONSOON TROUGH AND NOW IS AT 15.7N109.9W WITH
MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT AND SEAS TO 10 FT.  SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE STRENGTHENING DESPITE MILDLY UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT...MAINLY DUE TO THE ABUNDANT WARM TROPICAL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND 29 DEGREES SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  MECHANICAL
UPLIFT PROMPTS NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IN BANDS
FEEDING ITS STRENGTHENING CENTER WITH TYPICAL COMMA-SHAPED
SIGNATURE WELL FORMED IN NW QUADRANT.  T.D. FIFTEEN-E EXPECTED
TO FURTHER INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN 24 HOURS...THEN LIKELY TURN NE
AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARDS MEXICO IN THE SOUTHERN TIP OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  SYSTEM HAS A VERY HIGH PROBABILITY
OF REACHING TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH DURING NEXT 12-24 HOURS...
EVEN IF IT IS FOR A SHORT PERIOD BEFORE LANDFALL.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 15N101W THEN RESUMES FROM 
LOW PRES 1006 MB AT 13N117W TO 12N127W TO 13N131W...THEN RESUMES
FROM LOW PRES 1011 MB AT 14N135W TO BEYOND 09N140W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION S OF AXIS TO 06N.  NUMEROUS MODERATE
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS FROM 98W TO
103W AND FROM 117W TO 122W. 

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 32N122W TO 10N132W...MAKING LITTLE PROGRESS
EASTWARD AS HEALTHY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SITS STUBBORNLY WELL
ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.  SQUEEZED SOUTHERLY AIR FLOW
BETWEEN SYSTEMS INCREASES ADVECTING MOIST CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVER
MAINLAND MEXICO.  

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAINTAINS VERY DRY AND STABLE SUBSIDING AIR
MASS OVER BASIN W OF AXIS.  WHILE ANTICYCLONE ALLOWS ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE ACROSS E PAC BETWEEN 06N AND MONSOON
TROUGH.  SECOND LOW PRES CENTER AT 13N117W REMAINS UNDER AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING BUT IS QUICKLY
APPROACHING EDGE OF DRY AIR MASS WHICH WOULD SPELL ITS DOOM.  

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ALONG COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...
BETWEEN HIGH PRES CENTER 1027 MB AND WEAK TROUGH OVER GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA AND THE SIERRA MADRE. 

FARTHER W...LOW PRES CENTER 1011 MB ...REMNANT OF NARDA WHICH
REFUSES TO DIE ALTHOUGH DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...
IS AT 14N135W.  STILL ASSOCIATED WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS
AND SEAS TO 10 FT WITHIN 180 NM IN ITS NW QUADRANT.  SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SW AND OPEN INTO A TROUGH BY 24-48 HOURS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...TROPICAL WAVE COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA SUN AND MON BRINGING STRONG
N WINDS ACROSS CHIVELAS PASS INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE SUN.
EVENT EXPECTED TO BE WEAK AND SHORT-LIVED. 
 
$$
WALLY BARNES