000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110931
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI OCT 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A BROAD 1009 MB AREA OF LOW PRES REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON 
TROUGH NEAR 13N104W...OR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES S OF MANZANILLO 
MEXICO. ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 20 KT OR LESS...HOWEVER 
THEY ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT 
LATER TODAY THROUGH SAT AS THE LOW MOVES NW AROUND 5-10 KT.  
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINS DISORGANIZED HOWEVER CONDITIONS 
MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS LOW HAS A MEDIUM 
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 
HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 13N104W TO 11N120W 
THEN RESUMES FROM LOW PRES NEAR 16N130W TO 08N136W. THE ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 08N136W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM E OF A LINE FROM 13N92W TO 10N90W... 
WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 93W AND 99W...FROM 
13N TO 16N BETWEEN 104W AND 107W...FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 106W 
AND 110W...FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 113W AND 117W...AND 
ALSO WITHIN 90 NM IN THE N QUADRANT OF THE SECOND LOW.

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM SW OF 
MEXICO BETWEEN 99W AND 105W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE N CENTRAL AND NW WATERS WITH 
MAINLY DRY AND STABLE AIR EVIDENT N OF A LINE FROM 26N109W TO 
20N130W TO 20N140W. A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONES IS TO THE 
S-SW NEAR 10N132W AND 14N140W. DRY AND STABLE AIR IS ALSO 
NOTICEABLE S OF 20N W OF 130W. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION 
WATERS IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED 
OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 20N100W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S-SW OF 
THIS ANTICYCLONE IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON 
TROUGH WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FANNING OUT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 
05N TO 20N E OF 120W.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...1029 MB HIGH PRES IS NW OF THE AREA 
NEAR 36N145W WITH BROAD RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE NW CORNER OF 
THE DISCUSSION WATERS. LIGHT TO MODERATE N-NE WINDS PREVAIL N OF 
20N. NW SWELL WITH WAVE PERIODS OF 10-13 SECONDS AND SIGNIFICANT 
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8-11 FT COVERS THE WATERS  WITHIN AN AREA 
BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 30N136W TO 24N135W TO 23N120W TO 30N116W 
TO 30N136W. THIS SWELL IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH AN AREA OF SEAS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF NARDA WHICH IS CURRENTLY NEAR 
15N130W. WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 270 NM IN THE NW 
SEMICIRCLE OF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO 
GRADUALLY BECOME LESS DEFINED THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE 
REACHING 13N135W BY SAT NIGHT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF 
THE WATERS WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY