000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110754 CCA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI OCT 11 2013 CORRECTED DATE TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 14N104W BRINGS SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY WITHIN 210 NM IN NE QUADRANT. WELL DEFINED ANTICYCLONE... PREVIOUSLY OVER IT...HAS MOVED FURTHER N TO CENTRAL MEXICO AND TURNED LIGHT OVERHEAD WINDS INTO A MODERATE TO STRONG SE SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE HINDERING ITS POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP...OR AT LEAST SLOW IT DOWN. LOW PRES REMAINS OVER WARM WATER AND HAS ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO UPLIFT. SYSTEM HAS MEDIUM CHANCE OF TURNING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NEXT 48 HOURS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N86W TO 09N91W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES AT 14N104W TO 14N115W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES AT 14N120W TO 07N128W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N TO 16N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS E OF 82W. ...DISCUSSION... DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE OVER SW CONUS HAS UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 32N115W THEN SW TO 15N135W WITH VERY DRY STABLE AIR MASS COVERING MOST OF BASIN N OF 20N W OF 105W. SERIES OF VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND BASE OF TROUGH LIKELY TO PROMPT STRONG W WINDS JUST N OF 32N WITH SWELLS MOVING ACROSS BOUNDARY INTO E PAC N OF 20N FRI AND SAT. ...ELSEWHERE AT LOWER LEVELS... HIGH PRES 1027 MB AT 37N142W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 22N114W EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW. SWELLS FOLLOWING COLD FRONT LIKELY MERGE WITH SWELL MENTIONED ABOVE. ANOTHER SET OF SWELLS...THIS ONE ACROSS THE EQUATOR MOVE N BUT REMAIN S OF 10N AND LIKELY SUBSIDE BY LATE SAT. $$ WALLY BARNES