000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102159
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU OCT 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 180 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN MONSOON TROUGH
NEAR 14N103W BRINGS SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
MAINLY WITHIN 120 NM IN SE QUADRANT.  WELL DEFINED ANTICYCLONE...
PREVIOUSLY OVER IT...HAS MOVED FURTHER N TO CENTRAL MEXICO AND
TURNED LIGHT OVERHEAD WINDS INTO A MODERATE SE SHEAR OVER THE
CYCLONE HINDERING ITS POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP...OR AT LEAST SLOW IT
DOWN. LOW PRES REMAINS OVER WARM WATER AND HAS ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO UPLIFT. SYSTEM HAS MEDIUM CHANCE OF TURNING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NEXT 48 HOURS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N86W TO 10N95W TO LOW PRES AT 14N103W
TO 14N113W TO 07N124W THEN RESUMES FROM THE REMNANTS OF NARDA
AT 15N129W TO 10N137W...THEN ITCZ TO BEYOND 09N140W.  SCATTERED
TO MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION S OF AXIS TO 08N FROM 89W TO
116W AND WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS E OF 82W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE OVER SW CONUS HAS UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S
TO 32N115W THEN SW TO 14N136W WITH VERY DRY STABLE AIR MASS
COVERING MOST OF BASIN N OF 17N W OF 110W.  SERIES OF VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND BASE OF TROUGH LIKELY TO
PROMPT STRONG W WINDS JUST N OF 32N WITH SWELLS MOVING ACROSS 
BOUNDARY INTO E PAC N OF 20N FRI AND SAT.  

...ELSEWHERE AT LOWER LEVELS...
WEAKENING HIGH PRES 1021 MB AT 36N145W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE
TO 22N108W IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM
THE NW.  SWELLS FOLLOWING COLD FRONT LIKELY MERGE WITH SWELL 
MENTIONED ABOVE.  ANOTHER SET OF SWELLS...THIS ONE ACROSS THE
EQUATOR MOVE N BUT REMAIN S OF 10N AND LIKELY SUBSIDE BY LATE
SAT.    

WALLY BARNES