000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080249
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE OCT 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM NARDA CENTERED NEAR 14.6N 125.0W AT 0300 UTC 
MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 
KT GUSTING TO 65 KT WITH ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 
998 MB. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 
90 NM OF THE CENTER. NARDA IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY...REACHING 
MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY TUE. THEREAFTER...ATMOSPHERIC 
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AND NARDA WILL BEGIN TO 
WEAKEN. REFER TO NARDA FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS 
WTPZ24 KNHC/MIATCMEP4 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 10N109W TO 15N116W. 
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N136W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S OF TROUGH 
BETWEEN 91W AND 110W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE 1034 MB IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 41N146W 
WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 22N114W. AWAY FROM 
TROPICAL STORM NARDA AND S OF THE RIDGE...MODERATE TO FRESH 
TRADES WITH SEAS IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE PREVAIL. LONG PERIOD NW 
SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS REACHING 7-10 FT WILL PROPAGATE INTO 
THE WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W BY WED MORNING.  

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20 TO 30 KT OVER 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH COMBINED SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 10 
FT. THE FRESH TO NEAR GALE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT BEFORE 
DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 25 KT BY TUE NIGHT. BY WED AFTERNOON WINDS 
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL VEER. THIS WILL DECREASE THE WINDS 
FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
AND FURTHER DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 20 KT.

$$
AL