000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072109
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON OCT 07 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM NARDA CENTERED NEAR 14.4N 123.7W AT 2100 UTC 
MOVING W OR 285 DEG AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KT 
GUSTING TO 65 KT WITH ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 
998 MB. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 
180 NM OF CENTER. NARDA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WNW WITH FAVORABLE 
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...AND OVER WARM SEA WATERS OVER THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...NARDA IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY REACHING 
MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY TUE AND CONTINUE AT HURRICANE 
INTENSITY THROUGH LATE WED. THEREAFTER...THE SEA SURFACE WATERS 
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME COOLER AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL 
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AND NARDA WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. REFER TO 
NARDA FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS WTPZ24 
KNHC/MIATCMEP4 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N90W TO 11N100W TO 
11N106W TO 15N116W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N132W TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 210 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 96W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF 
TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 100W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE 1035 MB IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 41N149W 
WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 25N116W. AWAY FROM 
TROPICAL STORM NARDA AND S OF THE RIDGE...MODERATE TO FRESH 
TRADES WITH SEAS IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE PREVAIL. LONG PERIOD NW 
SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS REACHING 10 FT WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE 
WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 118W-130W BY WED AFTERNOON.  

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20 TO 25 KT OVER 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING WITH THE COMBINATION OF 
NOCTURNALLY INDUCED DRAINAGE FLOW AND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS 
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT 
TONIGHT WITH COMBINED SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 11 FT BEFORE 
DIMINISHING TUE AFTERNOON TO 20 TO 25 KT. WINDS WILL FURTHER 
DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY WED AFTERNOON AS WINDS OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO VEER...DECREASING THE WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC.

$$
AL