000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070250
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON OCT 07 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

NEWLY UPGRADED T.S. NARDA WAS CENTERED NEAR 13.2N 119.8W AT 
07/0300 UTC MOVING WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 35 KT GUSTING TO 45 KT WITH ESTIMATED SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1005 MB. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM W SEMICIRCLE. NARDA IS 
FORECAST TO FURTHER INTENSIFY REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY TUE 
NIGHT AT 65 KT GUSTING TO 80 KT NEAR 15.5N 126.6W BEFORE 
WEAKENING TO BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY THU NIGHT AT 55 KT 
GUSTING TO 65 KT NEAR 16.4N 128.3W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 13N103W TO 13N112W. 
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11N132W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 600 NM S OF TROUGH 
BETWEEN 93W AND 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 60 NM N AND 30 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 102W AND 105W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA HAS LOOSENED AND WINDS ARE IN THE THE 20-25 KT RANGE 
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS TO 8 
FT. THE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER RELAX OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS AND 
SEAS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY MON MORNING. 
 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE 
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE HELP OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE 
FLOW. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-25 KT MON MORNING WITH 
THE COMBINATION OF NOCTURNALLY INDUCED DRAINAGE FLOW AND A COLD 
FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO REACHING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. 
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO 
TUESDAY BEFORE STARTING TO DIMINISH ON TUE AFTERNOON.

$$ 
AL