000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062105
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN OCT 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

NEWLY FORMED T.D. FOURTEEN WAS CENTERED NEAR 12.9N 118.5W AT 
06/2100 UTC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 30 KT GUSTING TO 40 KT 
WITH ESTIMATED SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB. T.D. FOURTEEN WAS 
MOVING WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG WITHIN 210 NM NW SEMICIRCLE AND ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 119W AND 127W. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO 
INTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT NEAR 13.2N 120.2W THEN 
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING ON A WNW TRACK...REACHING 
14.1N 124.2W LATE TUE NIGHT WITH AN INTENSITY OF 45 KT GUSTING 
TO 55 KT. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO MOVE IN A MORE NW 
DIRECTION WHILE CONTINUING TO FURTHER INTENSIFY THROUGH WED 
AFTERNOON TO 60 KT GUSTING TO 75 KT NEAR 16.0N 126.6W BEFORE 
STARTING TO WEAKEN. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 13N111W. THE ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 11N132W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 
90W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 101W AND 105W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA HAS STARTED TO RELAX AND WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO THE 
20-25 KT RANGE OVER THE NORTHER HALF OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
WITH SEAS 8-9 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER RELAX OVERNIGHT WITH 
WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY MON 
MORNING. 
 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA THROUGH THIS 
EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT MON MORNING WITH THE 
COMBINATION OF NOCTURNALLY INDUCED DRAINAGE FLOW AND A COLD 
FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO REACHING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. 
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO 
TUESDAY BEFORE STARTING TO DIMINISH ON TUE AFTERNOON.

$$ 
AL