000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060955 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN OCT 06 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 08-09N FROM THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TO NORTHERN PANAMA THEN TURNS NW REMAINING INLAND TO 13N88W...THEN TURNS W ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA AT 14N90W WHERE IT TURNS ABRUPTLY SW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED 1008 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED AT 12N98W WHERE IT TURNS NW AGAIN TO 14N110W...THEN DIPS SW INTO A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AT 13N116W...THEN SW TO 10N133W WHERE SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ AXIS...WHICH IN TURN CONTINUES WESTWARD TO BEYOND 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FLARED LATE SAT OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL AMERICA AND HAS PROPAGATED SE OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE COAST CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 82-89W. ONLY ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE E OF 110W WITHIN 240 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 112-128W AND ITS EMBEDDED SURFACE LOW. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OF 13N113W...AND FLARING WITHIN THE AREA BOUNDED FROM 11-16N BETWEEN 115-121W...AND IN A CLUSTER WITHIN 90 NM OF 15N126W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER CYCLONE HAS CUT OFF OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 31N133W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO A BASE AT 22N141W. ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE HAS CUT OFF OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 03N120W WITH AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING NW TO 10N130W. A SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE HAS RECENTLY MOVED E INTO THE AREA NEAR 09N138W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE HAS MOVED W TO A POSITION JUST S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AT 22N110W. THIS ANTICYCLONE HAS AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SE ACROSS SOUTHERN OLD MEXICO THROUGH 17N96W...THEN CONTINUES ENE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO A CREST OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS SW FROM THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC TO A SHARP CREST AT 13N140W...AND AN UPPER RIDGE IS AMPLIFYING N ALONG 28N119W TO BEYOND 32N122W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE SW PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE HAS ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 110W-128W AND ITS EMBEDDED SURFACE LOW AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. THE RESULTANT UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING NW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...ROUGHLY WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N126W TO 29N122W WHERE IT CURRENTLY EVAPORATES. THE ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE ALSO EXTENDS E ACROSS THE TROPICAL E- PACIFIC E OF 105W AND TO THE N OF 09N. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA LATE SAT...WITH REMNANTS OF THE CONVECTION STILL DISSIPATING OVER THE E PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED SW COVERING THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE NE OF LINE FROM 06N84W TO 13N103W. ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE TRANSITIONAL AREA OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ...BUT ONLY SUPPORTED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY FANNING OUT ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 05-11N BETWEEN 130W-140W. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N AND S OF 20N W OF 130W. BROAD LOW PRESSURE SURROUNDS THE SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 110-112W. SEVERAL CYCLONIC SWIRLS ARE NOTED WITH THE MEAN CENTER ANALYZED NEAR 13N116W...AND ESTIMATED AT 1008 MB. CURRENTLY WINDS AT 15-20 KT ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 300 NM OF THE ANALYZED MEAN CENTER...WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT IN MIXED NW AND SE SWELL. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W AT 5-10 KT WITH ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS BECOMING A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION IN A FEW MORE DAYS. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW 20-30 KT WINDS...WITH SEAS 6-9 FT...ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE OPEN FETCH WATERS N OF 26N. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX TODAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4-5 FT BY LATE TONIGHT...THEN FURTHER DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KT WITH SEAS OF 1-3 FT BY LATE MON. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL N AMERICA CONTINUES S ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH SOME EVIDENCE OF THE TROUGH BASE CURRENTLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS JUST NOW ENTERING THE NW GULF OF MEXICO...AND WILL RACE SE REACHING THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE TONIGHT. NORTHERLY 15-20 KT DRAINAGE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WATERS LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE MON. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT PULSES OF N-NE 20-30 KT WINDS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT BEGINNING LATE MON NIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNRISE WED BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10 KT LATE WED. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE WATERS N OF 13N W OF 113W WITH AN EMBEDDED INVERTED TROUGH ANALYZED TO THE N OF 27N ALONG 130W. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NE TODAY ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BUILD E AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION. NE 15-20 KT TRADES CONTINUE S OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 14-17N BETWEEN 124-130W WITH SEAS 6-8 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED LONG PERIOD NW AND CROSS EQUATORIAL SE SWELL. THE AFFECTED AREA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT W ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM 12-16N BETWEEN 128-135W LATE TONIGHT...THEN FROM 11-17N BETWEEN 133- 140W ON MON NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT W OF 140W BY TUE NIGHT. NELSON