000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060230
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN OCT 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N86W TO 11N100W TO 13N110W TO 
1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 12.5N116W TO 11N130W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS 
SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO BEYOND 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 
150 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 111W AND 113W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM NW SEMICIRCLE 
AND 90 NM SE QUADRANT OF LOW NEAR 12.5N116W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 
12.5N116W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 210 NM NW SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM SE QUADRANT OF LOW 
NEAR 12.5N116W. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE 
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH 
EXPECTED.
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS OVER THE 
NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THE 
GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO FRESH 
TO STRONG BY SUN AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEN 
FURTHER RELAX SUN NIGHT WITH WINDS AND SEAS DECREASING BELOW 
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY MON 
MORNING.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA THROUGH SUN EVENING. WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BY MON MORNING IN RESPONSE TO GAP 
WINDS THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INDUCED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING 
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. 

$$
AL