000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052100
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT OCT 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N85W TO 12N90W TO 12N100W TO 
14N110W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 13N114W TO 12N120W TO 12N124W 
TO 10.5N130W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ 
WHICH EXTENDS TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 
97W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 150 NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF LOW NEAR 13N114W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 
13N114W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 150 NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER 
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH EXPECTED.
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS OVER THE 
NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THE 
GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT...WITH WINDS 
DIMINISHING TO FRESH TO STRONG. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEN 
FURTHER RELAX SUN NIGHT WITH WINDS AND SEAS DECREASING BELOW 
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY MON 
MORNING.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA THROUGH SUN EVENING. 
NORTHERLY 15-20 KNOT DRAINAGE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WATERS LATE EACH NIGHT BEGINNING ON SUN 
NIGHT.

$$
AL