000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050233
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT OCT 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 12N94W TO 1008 MB LOW 
PRES NEAR 13N112W TO 10N124W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A 
TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 
86W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 108W AND 111W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 250 NM N 
AND 90 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 111W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 130W AND 135W. 
  
...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE 1030 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 41N133W 
WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 19N110W. NW SWELLS 
HAVE BEEN PROPAGATING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE PAST 
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT COVERING MUCH OF THE 
AREA W OF 110W. NORTHERLY SWELLS GENERATED FROM EARLIER PERIOD 
OF GALE FORCE WINDS N OF THE AREA OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF THE 
UNITED STATES CONTINUE TO BRING SEAS IN THE 9-10 FT RANGE N OF 
26N BETWEEN 118W AND 126W. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVER 
THE AREA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT 
OVER THE N PART OF THE AREA BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE 
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY SUN EVENING. 
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-25 KT ACROSS 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WATERS N OF 30N. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT EVENING SUPPORTING 
STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. THE GRADIENT IS 
FORECAST TO WEAKEN LATE SAT NIGHT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 
FRESH TO STRONG. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEN FURTHER RELAX 
SUN NIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS 
THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY MON MORNING.

$$
AL