000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042108
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI OCT 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 12N91W TO 1008 MB LOW 
PRES NEAR 12N111W TO 10N124W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A 
TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 
94W AND 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 
NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 104W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM N OF TROUGH 
BETWEEN 111W AND 116W.
  
...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE 1030 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 39N137W 
WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 19N115W. NW SWELLS 
HAVE BEEN PROPAGATING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE PAST 
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT COVERING MUCH OF THE 
AREA W OF 110W. NORTHERLY SWELLS GENERATED FROM EARLIER PERIOD 
OF GALE FORCE WINDS N OF THE AREA OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF THE 
UNITED STATES CONTINUE TO BRING SEAS IN THE 9-11 FT RANGE N OF 
26N BETWEEN 118W AND 130W. THE WINDS THAT HAVE GENERATED THE 
SWELLS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE AND WILL CONTINUE TO 
FURTHER DIMINISH AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA AND 
THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES CONTINUE TO 
WEAKEN. AS A RESULT...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE N PART OF THE 
AREA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY SAT AFTERNOON.  

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 
KT ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WATERS TO THE N OF 30N THIS 
EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT 
AFTERNOON SUPPORTING STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN 
HALF OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. THE 
GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY SAT EVENING...WITH WINDS 
DIMINISHING TO FRESH TO STRONG. THE GRADIENT WILL THEN FURTHER 
RELAX SUN NIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA 
ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY MON MORNING.

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AL