000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031605 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU OCT 03 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NW COLOMBIA TO ACROSS PANAMA TO 10N96W TO AN EMBEDDED 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 13N108W...THEN SW TO 11N114W TO 11N123W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N131W...WHERE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ AXIS WHICH CONTINUES TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 90W-100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 45 NM OF 09N107.5W. ...DISCUSSION... A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SW THROUGH 32N120W TO AN ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 27N127.5W AND TO 26N136W TO 27N140W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA NEAR THE W CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO AT 22N107W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 10N128W...AND ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS NE FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MEXICO...AND TO THE SOUTHERN MID-WEST SECTION OF THE U.S. THE SW UPPER FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE UPPER TROUGH IS TRANSPORTING A 300 NM WIDE PLUME OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS...DERIVED FROM CONVECTION IN THE DEEP TROPICS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH...NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND FAR NW MEXICO. NW OF THE MOISTURE PLUME...MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMLUS ARE SEEN MOVING SW TO W TO THE N OF 20N AND W OF ABOUT 115W. AN ELONGATED CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LEVEL IS SITUATED IN THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 14N130W. THE LOW IS HELPING TO ENHANCE WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH AND WITH THE 1010 MB LOW NEAR 11N131W. AN INVERTED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE SE OF THE ANTICYCLONE AT 22N107W ALONG 16.5N103W 09N108.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM OF 09N107.5W. THE 1009 MB LOW NEAR 13N108W IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. THE LOW IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE INVERTED TROUGH...AND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 22N107W. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH THE LOW REMAINS WEAK AS UPPER LEVEL VERTICAL EASTERLY SHEAR IS ALLOWING FOR THE LOW CLOUD ELEMENTS TO BE EXPOSED ON THE E SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE SHEAR IS KEEPING MINIMAL CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE W OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WITH ONLY SMALL TSTM CLUSTERS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM SW OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE SEEN FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 108W AND 111W. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THIS LOW TO MOVE IN A WESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA AT 38N136W COVERS THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N W OF 120W. LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS GENERATED FROM GALE CONDITIONS N OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE CALIFORNIA COAST ARE STILL PROPAGATING ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA WITH COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS OF 9-10 FT TO THE N OF 27N BETWEEN 118W AND 125W...AND SEAS 8-10 FT ELSEWHERE N OF 05N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W...AND ALSO N OF 10N W OF 130W. THE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SAT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT N OF 23N BETWEEN 117W AND 127W BY THEN. $$ AGUIRRE