000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030235
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU OCT 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 09N91W TO 13.5N103W TO 
1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 13.5N108W TO 12N130W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS 
SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO BEYOND 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF 
TROUGH BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 107W AND 109W.

...DISCUSSION...
 
HIGH PRESSURE 1028 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 38N138W 
WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 23N116W. THE AREA OF  
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED FAR ENOUGH N OF THE AREA WHERE THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS WEAK. THIS IS 
KEEPING WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS W PART OF THE 
FORECAST AREA. LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENTLY SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE 
COVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA N OF 07N W OF 110W. THE SWELLS 
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM NW TO SE BEGINNING ON THU WITH SEAS 
BELOW 8 FT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA BY SAT. 
 
A 1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 
13.5N108W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM 
N SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A  
WESTWARD DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING EXPECTED.

$$
AL