000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022108
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED OCT 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 10N91W TO 13N98W 
TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 13.5N107W TO 12N130W WHERE LOW LEVEL 
WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ FROM 12N130W TO 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 
83W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 
NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 106W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF ITCZ W OF 135W. 

...DISCUSSION...
 
HIGH PRESSURE 1029 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 38N138W 
WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 24N118W. THE AREA OF  
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED FAR ENOUGH N OF THE AREA WHERE THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS WEAK. THIS IS 
KEEPING WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS W PART OF THE 
FORECAST AREA. LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENTLY SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE 
COVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA N OF 08N W OF 112W. THE SWELLS 
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM NW TO SE BEGINNING ON THU WITH SEAS 
BELOW 8 FT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH SAT. 
 
A 1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 
13.5N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM 
N SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD 
DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT 
STRENGTHENING EXPECTED.

$$
AL