000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020237
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED OCT 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N92W TO 13N95W TO 09N133W WHERE 
LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 
BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 
150 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 104W AND 107W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH 
BETWEEN 117W AND 133W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ W OF 133W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE 1027 MB IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 38N143W 
WITH SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 24N113W. THE RIDGE IS 
WEAK AND AS A RESULT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST 
AREA REMAINS WEAK. THIS IS KEEPING WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA 
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS HAVE PROPAGATED 
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NW WITH COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS OF 
8-11 FT COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA N OF 13N AND W OF 
115W. THE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE 
FORECAST AREA WHILE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. BY THURSDAY 
EVENING...SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE 
FORECAST AREA N OF 05N AND W OF 108W. THE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY 
SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT FROM W TO E BEGINNING LATE THU NIGHT WITH 
SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA 
AROUND MIDDAY SAT. 
 
$$
AL