000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012107
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE OCT 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N86W TO 12N116W TO 10N130W 
WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS 
TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 180 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 103W AND 108W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM S OF 
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 122W AND 128W. 

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE 1027 MB IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 38N145W 
WITH SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 23N115W. THE RIDGE IS 
WEAK AND AS A RESULT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST 
AREA REMAINS WEAK. THIS IS KEEPING WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA 
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS HAVE PROPAGATED 
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NW WITH COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS OF 
8-12 FT COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA N OF 20N AND W OF 
116W. THE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE 
FORECAST AREA WHILE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. BY THURSDAY 
AFTERNOON...SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE 
FORECAST AREA N OF 10N AND W OF 110W. THE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY 
SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT FROM W TO E BEGINNING ON THU NIGHT WITH SEAS 
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AROUND 
MIDDAY SAT. 
 
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AL