000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010919
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE OCT 01 2013  

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 12N87W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 13N105W TO 
11N125W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 102W-107W AND WITHIN 60 NM N OF 
AXIS FROM 132W-135W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA FROM 32N125W TO 30N130W TO 29N133W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 24N118W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE 
EXTENDING E ACROSS MEXICO AT 23N102W. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO 
EXTENDS W FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO 17N130W. THESE UPPER FEATURES 
COMBINE TO DRY OUT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA N OF 15N W OF 110W.  AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE 
COAST OF MEXICO AT 19N107W TO AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AT 13N114W. 

A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 17N112W MOVING SW AND 
WEAKENING. A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON 
TROUGH IS NEAR 13N105W.

BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 19N W OF 
112W. LARGE NW SWELLS HAVE PROPAGATED S INTO THE NW PORTION OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH SEA HEIGHTS OF 8-12 FT TO THE NW OF A 
LINE FROM 30N116W TO 20N140W. THESE NW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO 
PROPAGATE SSE COVERING MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 10N W OF 
115W TUE NIGHT. THE SWELLS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM W TO 
E BEGINNING ON THU.
 
$$
DGS