000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010028 CCA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION TO ISSUANCE DTG NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON SEP 30 2013 CORRECTION TO ISSUANCE DATA AND TIME TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 09N FROM THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TO ACROSS CENTRAL COSTA RICA...TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 10N85W...THEN CONTINUES JUST OFFSHORE BUT PARALLELING THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA GOING SLIGHTLY INLAND EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA...THEN TURNING W ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THEN SW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED 1010 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 11N103W...THEN NW TO 12N110W...THEN WSW TO 10N124W WHERE SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ AXIS WHICH CONTINUES SW TO 09N130W...THEN TURNS W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N78W TO 12N92W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N84W TO 09N94W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE LOW TROUGH AND EMBEDDED SURFACE LOW...ROUGHLY WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 13N102W TO 09N106W TO 11N113W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION SEEMS HAVE MATURED ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N132W TO 09N140W. ...DISCUSSION... A UPPER TROUGH...ACCOMPANIED BY A 90 NM WIDE BAND OF MOISTURE... HAS MOVED OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N127W TO 31N140W AND WILL SOON MERGE WITH AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE N-CENTRAL PORTION AT 31N130W...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM THE CYCLONE TO A BASE AT 23N133W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 25N116W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING E ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO TO A SHARP CREST AT 24N99W. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS W FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO BEYOND 19N140W. THESE UPPER FEATURES COMBINE TO DRY OUT THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ELSEWHERE TO THE W OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM 30N94W TO 17N140W. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS NOTED OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 06N135W. AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED N OF THIS CYCLONE AND SW OF THE UPPER RIDGE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED...ROUGHLY OVER THE LOWER LEVEL ITCZ WHERE CONVECTION HAS BURST BETWEEN 132-146W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH 16N89W TO AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AT 14N106W...THEN CONTINUES S TO ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 06N106W. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 17N111W AND IS MOVING SW WHILE WEAKENING. A SECOND 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 11N102W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN AT 16N76W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W TO NEAR 12N105W. THE TWO UPPER FEATURES COMBINE TO SET UP FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE SURFACE LOWS. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 13N W OF 111W. LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS HAVE PROPAGATED S INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS OF 8-12 FT TO THE NW OF A LINE FROM 32N118W TO 24N140W. THESE NW SWELLS...IN THE FORM OF COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT...WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT... CONTINUING TO PROPAGATE SSE COVERING MOST OF THE PACIFIC WATERS N OF 10N W OF 112W AROUND MIDDAY WED. THE SWELLS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM W TO E BEGINNING ON THU WITH SEAS BELOW 8 FT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AROUND MIDDAY SAT. $$ NELSON