000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301834 RRA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON SEP 30 2013

RESEND

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 15N93W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 11N102W TO 10N124W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N124W TO 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90-150 NM S OF 
A LINE FROM 08N78W TO 06N86W TO 08N91W...WITHIN 90 NM SW OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 88W AND 91W...N OF 15N E OF 96W...WITHIN 
90 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 103W AND 106W...FROM 10N 
TO 11N BETWEEN 111W AND 113W...AND ALSO FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 
131W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS 
NEAR 06N137W. A LARGE AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS W OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA NEAR 24N117W...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO 
THE SW-W AT 17N140W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM 08N TO 14N W OF 
130W IS HELPING SUPPORT CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS S-SW FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO 12N123W... 
WITH ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM S OF THE EQUATOR ALONG 
121W S OF 10N. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION...DRY AND STABLE AIR 
DOMINATES W OF A LINE FROM 24N107W TO 20N120W TO 00N120W. 

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 14N106W. THE ABOVE 
MENTIONED ANTICYCLONE N OF THIS CYCLONE...ALONG WITH BROAD 
RIDGING EXTENDING OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS 
IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE SUPPORT 
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AS IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...NW SWELL WITH WAVE PERIODS OF 16-18 
SECONDS HAS BREACHED THE NW CORNER WITH 8-12 FT SEAS COVERING 
THE AREA N OF A LINE FROM 30N124W TO 25N140W. THIS SWELL WILL 
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE SE COVERING THE WATERS N OF 10N W 
OF 114W BY 48 HOURS WITH DECAYING TO MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHTS OF 8-11 FT BY WED MORNING.

1010 MB LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N102W. 
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS ARE NEAR THIS LOW ALONG 
WITH SPORADIC CONVECTION. TO THE NW...ANOTHER 1010 MB LOW IS N 
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 17N110W WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE 
TROUGH ALONG 110W. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE ON THE NW SIDE OF 
THIS LOW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ELSEWHERE AND 5-7 FT SEAS. 
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED WITH EITHER OF THESE LOWS.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY MODERATE WINDS...ANTICYCLONIC N OF 10N W OF 
110W AND PRIMARILY SOUTHERLY WINDS S OF 10N...ALONG WITH 4-7 FT 
SEAS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS.

$$
LEWITSKY