000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300234 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON SEP 30 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL AMERICA...THEN EMERGES INTO THE NE PACIFIC FROM 14N91W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N99W TO 10N103W...THEN RESUMES FROM 13N109W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N112W TO 10N128W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N128W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 80W AND 85W...WITHIN 180 NM W QUADRANT FIRST LOW...FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 101W AND 105W...FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 111W AND 113W... WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 111W AND 114W...AND ALSO FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 128W AND 131W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 29N133W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW FROM THE CYCLONE TO BEYOND 21N140W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS OBSERVED OVER THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 05N138W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 25N114W...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SW-W WITH A SHARP CREST AT 16N140W. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS S-SW FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO 10N119W. WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE TROPICS S OF 21N BETWEEN 104W AND 117W... PROVIDING ENHANCEMENT OF THE CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AS IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. THE RESULTANT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED TO THE SW. THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALSO BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE CREST AT 16N140W AND THE UPPER TROPICAL CYCLONE AT 05N138W... SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 127W. OTHERWISE...THESE UPPER FEATURES COMBINE TO DRY OUT THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE NW OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM 24N107W TO 13N140W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN N-ATLANTIC CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH 16N89W TO A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE RIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 16N94.5W. UPPER NORTHERLY-NE FLOW IS NOTED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA E AND S OF THIS TROUGH AXIS WITH THE UPPER LEVELS APPEARING SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC N OF 06N E OF 104W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 1023 MB HIGH PRES AT 32N136W TO 22N110W. LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS COVER THE WATERS N OF 10N W OF 110W. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE PRES GRADIENT MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT DENSITY...HOWEVER NW SWELL WILL BREACH 30N140W LATER TONIGHT...WITH 8-12 FT SEAS COVERING THE AREA N OF A LINE FROM 30N117W TO 27N120W TO 23N130W TO 22N140W BY MON EVENING...CONTINUING TO PROPAGATE TO THE SE AND COVERING THE AREA N OF A LINE FROM 30N140W TO 15N140W TO 15N126W TO 22N114W TO 30N116W TO 30N140W BY TUE EVENING. SEVERAL WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRES ARE EMBEDDED IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...HOWEVER ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. CONVECTION NEAR ALL THREE LOWS IS SPARSE AND DISORGANIZED. NO DEVELOPMENT OF ANY OF THESE LOW IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH 48 HOURS. $$ LEWITSKY