000 AXPZ20 KNHC 292130 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN SEP 29 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N99W TO 13N103W...THEN RESUMES FROM 14N110W TO 12N121W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 12N121W TO 09N130W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 05N E OF 81W...FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 87W AND 89W...AND ALSO WITHIN 75 NM W OF A LINE FROM 12N102W TO 07N100W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 28N134W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW FROM THE CYCLONE TO BEYOND 19N140W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS OBSERVED OVER THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 05N139W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 25N113W...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SW WITH A SHARP CREST AT 16N140W. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS S-SW FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO 08N118W. WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE TROPICS S OF 21N BETWEEN 103W AND 117W... PROVIDING ENHANCEMENT OF THE CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AS IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. THE RESULTANT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED TO THE SW. THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALSO BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE CREST AT 16N140W AND THE UPPER TROPICAL CYCLONE AT 05N139W... SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 126W. OTHERWISE...THESE UPPER FEATURES COMBINE TO DRY OUT THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE NW OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM 24N107W TO 14N140W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN N-ATLANTIC CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH 17N88W TO A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AT 16N93W. UPPER NORTHERLY-NE FLOW IS NOTED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF THIS TROUGH AXIS WITH THE UPPER LEVELS APPEARING SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC N OF 07N E OF 105W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 1022 MB HIGH PRES AT 32.5N130W TO 25N112W. LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS COVER THE WATERS N OF 10N W OF 110W. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE PRES GRADIENT MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT DENSITY...HOWEVER NW SWELL WILL BREACH 30N140W TONIGHT...WITH 8-12 FT SEAS COVERING THE AREA N OF A LINE FROM 30N120W TO 25N130W TO 24N140W BY MON AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUING TO PROPAGATE TO THE SE AND COVERING THE AREA N OF A LINE FROM 20N140W TO 16N136W TO 22N117W TO 27N115W BY TUE AFTERNOON. SEVERAL WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRES ARE EMBEDDED IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...HOWEVER ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. NO DEVELOPMENT OF ANY OF THESE LOW IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH 48 HOURS. $$ LEWITSKY