000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290930
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN SEP 29 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N86W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N97W THEN RESUMES 
AT 14N109W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N113W TO 12N120W. ITCZ FROM 
12N120W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 08N 
TO 12N BETWEEN 85W-90W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION NEAR 26N134W. A NEARLY STATIONARY BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED JUST W OF THE SOUTHERN 
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 24N113W. MODERATE 
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS IS ACROSS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 113W. CONVECTIVE 
DEBRIS IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE NE-E TO THE SW-W ACROSS THE 
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE WHERE EASTERLY FLOW DOMINATE THE AREA. A LARGE UPPER 
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE AREA 
NEAR 4N138W.

SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 20N W OF 115W. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 
5-7 FT SEAS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA N OF 10N W OF 110W. 
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE U.S. PACIFIC NW. THE PRIMARY 
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF OF 
THE AREA HOWEVER LARGE NW SWELL OF 8-11 FT WILL PROPAGATE INTO 
THE DISCUSSION AREA BY SUN NIGHT. THE NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO 
PROPAGATE TO THE SE WITH HEIGHTS OF 8-12 FT COVERING THE AREA N 
OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 25N140W BY MON EVENING.

A 1012 MB LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH S-SW OF THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA NEAR 12N97W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW.

WEAK AND BROAD 1012 MB SURFACE LOW PRES IS SW OF THE W CENTRAL 
COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18N109W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE CENTER 
OF THE LOW. ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH 4-6 
FT SEAS. NO DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

ANOTHER 1012 MB LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH   
NEAR 12N113W. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WITH 8 FT SEAS OCCURRING 
WITHIN 180 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT OF THE LOW. THIS LOW IS 
FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHILE DRIFTING E WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND 
SEAS DIMINISHING/SUBSIDING BY SUN AFTERNOON. 

$$
DGS