000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI SEP 27 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 9N85W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N92W THEN RESUMES 
FROM LOW PRES NEAR 17N104W TO ANOTHER LOW PRES NEAR 14N115W TO 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION N OF 07N 
BETWEEN 86W AND 94W AND WITHIN 80 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 
115W TO 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED SW OF 
MEXICO NEAR 19N109W WITH RIDGE TO 17N133W. TO THE NW OF THE 
ANTICYCLONE...A FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO 
THE AREA JUST W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR IN THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS 
THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 110W.

SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 17N W OF 115W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES 
COVER THE AREA N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 110W. NW SWELL WITH 
SEAS OF 8-11 FT COVER THE N CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 116W-135W. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY AS IT CONTINUES TO 
PROPAGATE TO THE SE-S....SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY SAT 
AFTERNOON.

A 1009 MB WEAK LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 
10N92W. WINDS ARE ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE NEAR THE LOW WITH SEAS 
LESS THAN 8 FT. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE W DURING THE NEXT 
24-48 HOURS WITH NO DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED.

ANOTHER LOW PRES...1008 MB...IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH 
SW OF MEXICO NEAR 17N104W. DISORGANIZED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING 
MAINLY N OF THE LOW AS WELL AS OVER SW MEXICO WHERE ADDITIONAL 
HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES WITH THE LINGERING THREAT OF LOCALIZED 
FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SW-W 
DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH LIMITED DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELL MIXING WITH THE ABOVE DESCRIBED NW 
SWELL IS BUILDING SEAS UP TO 8-9 FT OVER THE S PORTION OF THE 
AREA. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY THROUGH THE NEXT 48 
HOURS...WITH A REMNANT AREA OF 8-9 FT SWELL SHIFTING NE WHILE 
BECOMING PRIMARILY NW SWELL BY SAT AFTERNOON.
 
$$
DGS