000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262130 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU SEP 26 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N86W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N90W TO 10N98W THEN RESUMES FROM LOW PRES NEAR 16.5N101W TO 14N120W TO 11N140W. NO ITCZ IS PRESENT E OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN115W AND 117W. SCATTERED MODERATE BETWEEN 90 NM AND 240 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 91W AND 100W...AND WITHIN 180 NM S OF MEXICO BETWEEN 101W AND 110W. ...DISCUSSION... A SHARP DEEP LAYERED TROUGH AND EMBEDDED CYCLONE IS OVER THE NW CONUS WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH. THE EASTERNMOST TROUGH HAS ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N120W TO 25N124W TO A BASE AT 17N133W. A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS JUST ENTERING THE AREA ALONG 32N BETWEEN 122-140W. THESE TROUGHS COMBINE TO SEPARATE THE UPPER FLOW WITH AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED TO THE W OF THE AREA NEAR 12N145W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N ALONG 140W/142W...AND A SECOND RIDGE EXTENDING E TO NEAR 16N131W. THE UPPER FLOW IS SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT S OF THIS SOUTHERN RIDGE...AND ROUGHLY IN PHASE WITH THE LOWER LEVEL MONSOON TROUGH...AND ENHANCING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED TO THE S OVER AN AREA S OF 05N TO THE W OF 130W. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY TO THE W OF A LINE FROM 23N105W TO 17N140W. AN ELONGATED UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG 27N104W TO 20N107W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS SE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS SW TO 16N125W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE UNDER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO...AND ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 117W AND 120W. AN ATLANTIC TUTT CONTINUES SW AND BISECTS THE CARIBBEAN FROM NE TO SW AND CONTINUING SW ACROSS THE BORDER OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC NEAR 08N88W. CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ENHANCED E OF THIS UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ALREADY DESCRIBED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE AN UPPER RIDGE ORIGINATING OVER S AMERICA IS ALONG 70W. THE UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED S OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC TO THE NE OF A LINE FROM 01N79W TO 05N100W. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS SE OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE N OF 19N W OF 125W. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15- 20 KT ARE SPILLING ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN MIXED NW AND SE SWELL NOTED ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N W OF 115W. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 5-15 KT BY MIDDAY SAT AS THE SEAS SUBSIDE TO 4-7 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED NW AND SE SWELL. CROSS EQUATORIAL SE SWELL IS MIXING WITH N SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 6- 9 FT ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS S OF 10N W OF 110W. THE AFFECTED AREA WILL SHRINK TO A STRIP ALONG 09N BETWEEN 108-117W ON SAT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 20 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST TO 24N. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE N OF 27N. $$ COBB