000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251516 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED SEP 25 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1530 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 08N82W TO LOW PRES NEAR 15N98W 1007 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N115W 1010 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 14N123W 1009 MB TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 150 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 82W AND 89W. ...DISCUSSION... SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED JUST TO THE W OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 23N113W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO NEAR 31N130W. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO BRING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA N OF A LINE FROM 22N105W TO 17N120W TO 12N140W. TO THE SW OF THE ANTICYCLONE...A SHORTWAVE INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 21N130W TO 11N128W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. TO THE E OF THE TROUGH AND SE OF THE ANTICYCLONE...FAIRLY DEEP LAYERED EASTERLY FLOW WAS NOTED. THIS FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO ADVECT UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...AS WELL AS JUST INLAND AND S OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO WHERE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 101W AND 104W. THE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS EXTENDS W TO NEAR 110W BEFORE IT EVAPORATES IN THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NE TO THE E OF 100W. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY 1031 MB HIGH PRES IS WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 39N149W WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SE THROUGH 32N135W TO 26N125W...WHILE A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM FAR SE CALIFORNIA AND JUST INLAND OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH IS RESULTING IN NW 25- 30 KT WINDS JUST N OF THE NE PART OF THE AREA. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO MINIMAL GALE INTENSITY THIS EVENING. THE RESULTANT SWELLS WITH PERIODS OF 15-18 SEC WILL PROPAGATE SE INTO MUCH OF THE NE SECTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS PRODUCING SEAS OF 9-11 FT TODAY N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W-128W TODAY...AND 10-12 FT TONIGHT N OF 29N BETWEEN 120W-125W. THE NW SWELLS WILL SEEP PRETTY FAR S REACHING TO NEAR 07N BY LATE WHERE SEAS OF 8-10 FT ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 114W-128W. TWO AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRES ARE EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE EASTERN LOW HAS A PRES OF 1007 MB...AND IS ANALYZED NEAR 15N98W. THIS LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF UPPER ELY SHEAR WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE W OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH SEAS CURRENTLY LESS THAN 8 FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE W- NW DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS JUST S OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS MAY SPREAD OVER AREAS OF SW MEXICO THAT ARE ALREADY WELL SATURATED DUE TO PREVIOUS TROPICAL SYSTEMS...WITH THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SECOND LOW PRES WITH A PRES OF 1009 MB IS ANALYZED NEAR 14N123W. A MUCH EARLIER ASCAT PASS CAPTURED AN AREA OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NW QUADRANT. ALTIMETRY PASSES INDICATED SEAS TO 9 FT. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE E-NE...AND REACHING NEAR 14N120W BY TONIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE BY THU EVENING. A THIRD AREA OF SPOT LOW PRES WAS ANALYZED NEAR 13N115W IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELL IS IMPACTING THE FAR SW WATERS WITH SEAS TO 9 FT S OF A LINE FROM 00N110W TO 05N125W TO 05N140W. SEAS ACROSS THIS AREA WILL NOT VARY MUCH THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THEY PROPAGATE NORTHWARD. $$ COBB