000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251017 TWDEP AXPZ20 KNHC DDHHMM TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED SEP 25 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 15N95W TO LOW PRES NEAR 15N97W 1008 MB TO 14N111W TO 15N117W TO LOW PRES NEAR 14N124W 1011 MB TO 12N129W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 12N129W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 134W-136W AND WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ W OF 139W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 132W-134W. ...DISCUSSION... SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED JUST TO THE W OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 23N112W WITH A RIDGE NW TO NEAR 31N132W. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO BRING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA N OF A LINE FROM 22N106W TO 17N120W TO 12N140W. TO THE SW OF THE ANTICYCLONE...A SHORTWAVE INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 17N126W TO 11N129W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. TO THE E OF THE TROUGH AND SE OF THE ANTICYCLONE...THE UPPER WIND FLOW PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY A RATHER PERSISTENT ELY FLOW. THIS FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO ADVECT UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION PRESENT OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...AS WELL AS JUST INLAND AND S OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO WHERE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 100W AND 103W. THE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS EXTENDS W TO NEAR 112W BEFORE IT EVAPORATES IN THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NE TO THE E OF 100W. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY 1030 MB HIGH PRES IS WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 39N149W WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SE THROUGH 32N137W AND TO 24N121W...WHILE A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM FAR SE CALIFORNIA SE TO JUST INLAND MEXICO. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND TROUGH IS RESULTING IN NW 25-30 KT WINDS JUST N OF THE NE PART OF THE AREA. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO MINIMAL GALE INTENSITY BY THIS EVENING. THE RESULTANT SWELLS WITH PERIODS OF 15-18 SEC WILL PROPAGATE SE INTO MUCH OF THE NE SECTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS PRODUCING SEAS OF 9-11 FT TODAY N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W-128W TODAY...AND 10-12 FT TONIGHT N OF 29N BETWEEN 120W-125W. THE NW SWELLS WILL SEEP PRETTY FAR S REACHING TO NEAR 07N BY LATE WHERE SEAS OF 8-10 FT ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 114W-128W. TWO AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRES ARE EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE EASTERN LOW HAS A PRES OF 1008 MB...AND IS ANALYZED NEAR 15N97W. SINCE THIS LOW IS UNDER UPPER ELY SHEAR...DEEP CONVECTION AS DESCRIBED ABOVE REMAINS WELL REMOVED TO ITS W. ITS ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE MODERATE WITH SEAS CURRENTLY LESS THAN 8 FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE W-NW DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS JUST S OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS MAY SPREAD OVER AREAS OF SW MEXICO THAT ARE ALREADY WELL SATURATED DUE TO PREVIOUS TROPICAL SYSTEMS...WITH THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SECOND LOW PRES WITH A PRES OF 1008 MB IS ANALYZED NEAR 13N124W. AN ASCAT PASS FROM JUST PAST 06 UTC THIS MORNING CAPTURED AN AREA OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NW QUADRANT. SEAS THERE ARE TO 9 FT. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE E-NE...AND REACHING NEAR 14N120W BY TONIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE BY THU EVENING. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELL IS IMPACTING THE FAR SW WATERS WITH SEAS TO 9 FT S OF A LINE FROM 00N106W TO 05124W TO 05N140W. SEAS ACROSS THIS AREA WILL NOT VARY MUCH THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE S OF 07N BETWEEN 116W-129W...AND ALSO S OF A LINE FROM 13N129W TO 00N140W BY THU EVENING AS THEY MERGE WITH NW SWELLS AS MENTIONED EARLIER. $$ AGUIRRE