000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250333
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED SEP 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N79W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
15N96W TO 10N105W TO 14N114W TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N125W. THE ITCZ 
AXIS CONTINUES FROM 13N125W TO BEYOND 09N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ 
IS NOTED...HOWEVER SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING N 
OF 15N BETWEEN 98W AND 101W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN ELONGATED AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT 22N110W. THIS FEATURE 
DOMINATES A LARGE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS WITH MAINLY 
DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE WATERS N OF A LINE FROM 22N110W TO 
16N140W. A SHORTWAVE INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS NEAR 
18N128W TO 11N129W WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION 
WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE... 
PREDOMINATELY UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
WATERS ALOFT WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS BEING ADVECTED FROM E TO W-
SW OVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W.

AT THE SURFACE...1030 MB HIGH PRES IS NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
NEAR 39N141W WITH A RIDGE REACHING SE TO 24N117W. BROAD 
TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 26N121W. A SET 
OF NW SWELL WITH WAVE PERIODS OF 15-18 SECONDS AND HEIGHTS OF 8-
11 FT COVERS THE WATERS NW OF A LINE FROM 30N119W TO 26N123W TO 
23N133W TO 23N140W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SET UP 
ALONG THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WITHIN THE NEXT 
24 HOURS WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXTENDING INTO THE AREA N OF 
28N BETWEEN 120W AND 127W BY 24 HOURS. THESE WINDS WILL HELP TO 
BUILD SEAS FURTHER UP TO 12-13 FT ALONG 30N-32N...WITH THE AREA 
OF NW SWELL OF 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING ALL THE WAY TO 09N BY 
THU EVENING.

TWO AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRES ARE EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. 
THE EASTERN 1007 MB LOW IS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA NEAR 
15N96W. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED AND WELL-REMOVED FROM THE 
IMMEDIATE CENTER. ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE MODERATE TO FRESH WITH 
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE W-NW 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS JUST S OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. 
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS MAY SPREAD OVER AREAS OF SW MEXICO THAT 
ARE ALREADY WELL SATURATED DUE TO PREVIOUS TROPICAL SYSTEMS... 
WITH THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES THROUGH THE END OF 
THE WEEK. A SECOND AREA OF 1008 MB LOW PRES IS WELL TO THE W 
NEAR 13N125W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG 
WINDS IN THE SE QUADRANT...WHILE 8-9 FT SEAS ARE LIKELY WITHIN 
150 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT OF THE LOW IN PRIMARILY NW SWELL. THIS 
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE E-NE REACHING 13.5N122W WED EVENING... 
DISSIPATING BY THU EVENING.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELL IS IMPACTING THE FAR SW WATERS WITH 8-
9 FT SEAS S OF A LINE FROM 00N137W TO 05N135W TO 04N118W TO 
00N111W. SEAS ACROSS THIS AREA WILL NOT VARY MUCH THROUGH THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS...GRADUALLY DECAYING FROM 24-48 HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY