000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242127
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE SEP 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
15N95W TO 10N105W TO LOW PRES NEAR 14N114W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
13N125W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 13N125W TO BEYOND 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 99W...WITHIN 150 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT OF 
THE SECOND LOW PRES...AND ALSO WITHIN 150 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT 
OF THE THIRD LOW PRES.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE AND BROAD ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT 13N114W DOMINATES A LARGE PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE WATERS 
ROUGHLY N OF 20N W OF 110W. A SHORTWAVE INVERTED UPPER TROUGH 
EXTENDS NEAR 16N126W TO 10N130W WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE 
VICINITY AS IS DESCRIBED ABOVE. OTHERWISE...PREDOMINATELY UPPER 
LEVEL EASTERLIES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS ALOFT WITH 
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS BEING ADVECTED FROM E TO W-SW OVER THE AREA 
FROM 10N TO 22N E OF 110W.

AT THE SURFACE...1030 MB HIGH PRES IS NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
NEAR 39N145W WITH A RIDGE REACHING SE TO 25N120W. A SET OF NW 
SWELL WITH WAVE PERIODS OF 15-18 SECONDS AND HEIGHTS OF 8-11 FT 
COVERS THE WATERS NW OF A LINE FROM 30N121W TO 27N125W TO 
26N140W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SET UP ALONG THE 
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FRESH TO 
STRONG WINDS EXTENDING INTO THE AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN 118W AND 
124W BY 48 HOURS. THESE WINDS WILL HELP TO BUILD SEAS FURTHER UP 
TO 13 FT ALONG 30N...WITH THE AREA OF NW SWELL OF 8 FT OR 
GREATER REACHING ALL THE WAY TO 11N BY THU AFTERNOON.

THREE AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRES ARE EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. 
THE EASTERN 1007 MB LOW IS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA NEAR 
15N95W. CONVECTION REMAINS REMOVED FROM THE IMMEDIATE CENTER AND 
ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE MODERATE TO FRESH WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE W-NW DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS 
JUST S OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS MAY SPREAD 
OVER AREAS OF SW MEXICO THAT ARE ALREADY WELL SATURATED DUE TO 
PREVIOUS TROPICAL SYSTEMS...WITH THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND 
MUDSLIDES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. 1008 MB LOW PRES IS WELL 
TO THE W NEAR 14N114W. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A THIRD LOW IS NEAR 13N125W. A RECENT 
SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE SE 
QUADRANT...WHILE 8-10 FT SEAS ARE LIKELY WITHIN 120 NM OF THE 
LOW IN NW SWELL. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE E-NE REACHING 
13.5N120W BY THU AFTERNOON.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELL IS IMPACTING THE FAR SW WATERS WITH 8-
9 FT SEAS S OF A LINE FROM 05N140W TO 04N120W TO 00N112W. SEAS 
ACROSS THIS AREA WILL NOT VARY MUCH THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY