000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241531
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE SEP 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 15N93W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
15N95W TO 10N104W TO 1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR 15N115W TO 1007 MB 
LOW PRES NEAR 13N124W TO 10N127W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE 
ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N127W TO 10N133W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W... 
FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 93W AND 98W...AND FROM 09N TO 14N 
BETWEEN 122W AND 127W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14N98W TO 17N104W...AND 
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 118W AND 122W.

...DISCUSSION...

EXAMINING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING...THE MAIN UPPER 
LEVEL FEATURE INFLUENCING A LARGE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
IS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE 
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 23N112W. EAST 
OF 110W...MOST UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES AS NORTHEAST TO 
EASTERLY PROVIDING A MARGINALLY DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS 
SOUTHERN MEXICO...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE AREA N OF 10N E OF 
110W. THE RIDGING ALOFT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW 
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH ANALYZED NEAR 15N95W. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STRETCHES WEST-NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW 
TO NEAR 16N104W. OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS LOW SUGGESTS 
DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN SLOW AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST... 
MOSTLY PARALLEL WITH THE MEXICO COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND NEARLY COMPLETE SATURATION 
OF THE SOIL DUE TO TROPICAL CYCLONE MANUEL FROM NEARLY 10 DAYS 
AGO...A LARGE PORTION OF MEXICO FROM 16N TO 23N WILL BE SUBJECT 
TO INCREASED PROBABILITY OF MORE HEAVY RAINFALL...LOCALIZED 
FLOODING...AND MUD SLIDES. WEST OF 110W...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
IS LADEN WITH DRY AIR RESULTING IN STABLE CONDITIONS OVERALL 
WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING TWO WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE 
AREAS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 115W AND 126W 
AND THE INCREASED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED 
CONVECTION. GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATES THE WESTERNMOST LOW AS 
DOMINATE AT THIS TIME AS IT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST-
NORTHEAST. WHILE THROUGH 48 HOURS WINDS ARE FORECAST 20 OR KT 
LESS...SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 8 TO 9 FT RANGE LARGELY DUE TO NW 
SWELL.

OTHERWISE...AT THE SURFACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...A 
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS WITH THE 
PRIMARY IMPACT BEING A 17 TO 18 SECOND NW SWELL TRAIN DIVING 
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A LARGE 
AREA OF SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8 TO 11 FT BY EARLY THURSDAY FOR 
THE AREA GENERALLY N OF 20N BETWEEN 115W AND 136W. FINALLY... 
ANOTHER AREA OF SWELL GENERATING SEAS TO 9 FT IS FORECAST TO 
REMAIN GENERALLY S OF 07N BETWEEN 112W AND 136W.

$$
HUFFMAN