000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241006 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE SEP 24 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NW COLOMBIA NW ACROSS PANAMA TO CENTRAL NICARAGUA. IT RESUMES AT 14N96W TO LOW PRES NEAR 14N101W 1010 MB TO 11N106W TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N115W 1008 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N124W 1008 MB TO 09N129W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS 09N129W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 96W-100W. ...DISCUSSION... SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE MAINTAINING DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS W OF A LINE FROM MAZATLAN MEXICO TO 18N120W TO 10N138W. A MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER W CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 23N105W WNW TO 25N128W TO 30N140W. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONE NW TO 32N110W AND TO WELL N OF THE AREA. THE RIDGE IS PART OF BROAD SCALE RIDGING THAT COVERS THE AREA W OF 100W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMLUS CLOUDS MOVING SW TO W ARE PRESENT W OF ABOUT 120W. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE STRETCHES INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N136W TO 26N126W. A PAIR OF 1008 MB LOWS HAS FORMED IN THE DEEP TROPICS WITH ONE AT 13N115W...AND THE OTHER AT 11N124W. THE 0448 UTC ASCAT PASS ASSISTED WITH THE LOCATION OF THE EASTERN LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE LOW NEAR 13N115W IN THE NW QUADRANT. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM IN THE N SEMICIRCLE...AND 150 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT OF THE LOW NEAR 11N124W. THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE LOW NEAR 13N115W WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE...WHILE THE ONE NEAR 11N124W LIFTS NEWD TO NEAR 13N123W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND TO NEAR 13N121W IN 48 HOURS. WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOWS ARE 20 KT OR LESS... ...HOWEVER SEAS TO 9 FT FROM MERGING SE AND NW SWELLS ARE PRESENT WITHIN 180 NM SE QUADRANT OF THE LOW NEAR 11N124W...AND WITHIN 120 NM SE QUADRANT OF THE LOW NEAR 13N115W. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT WITH THE LOW NEAR 13N115W IN 48 HOURS...AND TO 8 FT WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LOW NEAR 11N124W. DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE NOTED TO THE E OF THE LINE FROM MAZATLAN MEXICO TO 18N120W 10N138W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWS...BUT PRIMARILY WITH THE ONE DESCRIBED BELOW ...REMAINS RATHER ACTIVE WITH THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 23N105W FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER LOW IS IDENTIFIED TO BE ON THE E SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 14N101W WITH PRES OF 1010 MB. THIS LOW IS PART OF A PERSISTENT AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS AS SUGGESTED BY THE LOW CLOUD MOTION AND BY THE WIND VECTOR DIRECTION NOTED IN A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM 0306 UTC. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THIS AREA...AND CURRENTLY OBSERVED TO BE OF THE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG TYPE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 14N93W TO 14N96W...AND ALSO FROM 05N TO 08N E OF 79W. THIS CONVECTION REMAINS UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OCCURRING ON THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 23N105W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL HELP SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N E OF 105W. THE LOW IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO GRADUALLY MOVE IN A NW DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR IT TO INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES PATTERN IS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT AS SUGGESTED BY THE LIGHT WIND SPEEDS DISPLAYED IN THE LATEST ASCAT PASS. THE EXCEPTION REMAINS IN THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 29N BETWEEN 119W AND 123W WHERE NW-N 20 KT WINDS WERE HIGHLIGHTED. SEAS THERE AND ALSO N OF 29N W OF 134W ARE 8 FT IN A NW SWELLS. HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THU WHILE INTERACTING WITH THE SURFACE TROUGHING OVER INTERIOR CALIFORNIA AND FAR NW MEXICO. ACCORDING TO MODEL BOUNDARY WIND GUIDANCE...THIS SCENARIO WILL LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN NLY WINDS JUST N OF THE AREA AS THE PRES GRADIENT NEAR THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA TIGHTENS. NLY WINDS ARE FORECAST INCREASE TO 30 KT ACROSS THOSE WATERS BY THIS EVENING...AND TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE DURING WED. THE LARGE FETCH OVER WHICH THE INCREASING NLY WIND CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH LARGE NW SWELLS TO THE S OF 32N YIELDING SEAS OF 10-11 FT N OF 26N BETWEEN 120W-130W BY TONIGHT...AND WITH SIMILAR WAVE HEIGHTS N OF 28N BETWEEN 118W-123W BY WED NIGHT. SEAS 8-10 FT MAINLY DUE TO NW SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO SEEP AS FAR S AS 14N ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 115W-135W BY LATE WED NIGHT. ALSO IN REGARDS TO MARINE INTERESTS...CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELLS HAVE BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS TO 8 FT IN SE SWELLS S OF 03N BETWEEN 107W-132W. BY TONIGHT...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE SWELLS EXPANDS WWD TO 139W AND N TO 06N WITH THE SEAS TO 9 FT. BY LATE WED...THE AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 110W-139W AND N TO 07N WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO SEA HEIGHTS. $$ AGUIRRE