000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240335 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE SEP 24 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N100W TO 11N105W TO 10N106W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N115W 1008 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N124W 1008 MB TO 09N132W...THEN ITCZ TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF THE LOWS CENTERED NEAR 12N115W AND 11N124W. ...DISCUSSION... SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PREVAILS OVER NW PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA N OF 19N W OF 117W. CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING ALL ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE BOUNDARY...WITH CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION EVIDENT NEAR CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N115W AND 11N124W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH S-SW WINDS LOCATED S AND SE OF THE CIRCULATION NEAR 12N115W AND FRESH N-NW WINDS N OF THE AREA W OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BETWEEN 120W AND 125W. MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE ALTIMETER DATA IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MWW3 WAVE MODEL OUTPUT SO RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GFS AND MWW3 FORECAST GUIDANCE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT W OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. NW SWELL FROM THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT AND INCREASE SEAS UP TO 11 FT N OF 25N W OF 120W THROUGH WED. BUILDING STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT AND A THERMAL TROUGH OVER INTERIOR CALIFORNIA WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT THROUGH THU PRODUCING STRONG 25-30 KT N-NW WINDS N OF THE AREA WITH NW SWELL BUILDING TO 10-12 FT E OF 120W NEAR BAJA. GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR LOW PRES NEAR 11N124W DRIFTING NE TONIGHT AND WED. $$ MUNDELL