000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232125
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC MON SEP 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N88W TO 15N99W TO 11N105W TO 
12N115W TO 09N127W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE TROUGH E OF 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 113W AND 127W.

...DISCUSSION...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PREVAILS OVER NW PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA N 
OF 19N W OF 117W. CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING ALL ALONG THE 
CONVERGENCE ZONE BOUNDARY...WITH CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION 
EVIDENT NEAR CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON 
TROUGH NEAR 14N101W...12N115W AND 11N125W. SCATTEROMETER DATA 
SHOWS FRESH S-SW WINDS LOCATED S AND SE OF THE CIRCULATION NEAR 
12N115W...AND FRESH N-NW WINDS N OF THE AREA W OF SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA BETWEEN 120W AND 125W. MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE 
WINDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE ALTIMETER DATA IN 
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MWW3 WAVE MODEL OUTPUT SO RELATIVELY 
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GFS AND MWW3 FORECAST GUIDANCE DURING THE 
NEXT 2-3 DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAK STATIONARY FRONT W OF 
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. NW SWELL 
FROM THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AND INCREASE 
SEAS UP TO 11 FT N OF 25N W OF 120W TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. 
BUILDING STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT AND THERMAL TROUGH 
OVER INTERIOR CALIFORNIA WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ALONG 
THE CALIFORNIA COAST TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...PRODUCING STRONG 25 
TO 30 KT N-NW WINDS N OF THE AREA WITH NW SWELL BUILDING TO 10 
TO 12 FT E OF 120W NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR AREA OF LOW PRES FORMING FROM CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION NEAR 11N125W TUE WHICH DRIFTS NE TUE NIGHT AND WED. 

$$
MUNDELL