000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231522
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC MON SEP 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 15N93W TO 1006 MB LOW NEAR 15N103W TO 
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 40 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 113W-116W AND WITHIN 50 NM N AND 90 NM 
S OF AXIS FROM 122W-126W.

...DISCUSSION...
                                                        
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR N PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS FROM 32N126W TO 29N117W. OTHERWISE A 
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION DOMINATES THE 
REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED SW 
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 22N111W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING W FROM ANTICYCLONE TO 22N130W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER NE MEXICO CENTERED NEAR 
25N100W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 15N W OF 110W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE 
IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 
15N BETWEEN 90W-100W.

NW SWELL TO 9 FT IN THE N PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 28N E OF 123W 
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGER SWELLS IN TO 8 
TO 11 FT RANGE IS FORECAST PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA W OF A LINE 
30N117W TO 24N123W. AN AREA OF SW WINDS 20 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT 
FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 113W-116W WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT 
EARLY TUE. CROSS EQUATORIAL SE SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO 
THE AREA S OF 3S BETWEEN 114W-119W TONIGHT.

GLOBALS MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRES FORMS IN 
THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 12N123W TUE...THEN LIFTS NEWD THROUGH WED. 
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION IN THAT AREA. 
THIS MAY BE THE FIRST SIGNS OF THE LOW FORMING.

$$
DGS