000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222130
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC SUN SEP 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 08N78W TO 
09N83W TO 14N92W...THEN WESTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC TO 11N109W 
TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE TROUGH E OF 99W.

...DISCUSSION...

E-W ORIENTED RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 33N FROM HIGH PRES CENTERED 
NEAR 155W TO 125W. WEAK RIDGING AND LIGHT PRES GRADIENT PREVAILS 
OVER NW PORTION N OF 20N W OF 120W. CONVERGENCE ZONE STRETCHES 
ALONG 10N W OF 100W WITH LITTLE/NO CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR SMALL 
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS SPACED ABOUT 300 NM APART NEAR 113W 118W 
123W AND 128W. CONVECTION E OF 100W HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY 
AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE NW OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA 
FALTERS A BIT IN THE DEEP TROPICS. TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT N OF 
30N ALLOWING NLY WINDS TO INCREASE...WITH SEAS TO 8-9 FT NEAR 
THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. A WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL 
PERSIST ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND 
DISSIPATE W OF N CALIFORNIA TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. NW SWELL 
FROM THIS FRONT WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 8-10 FT N OF 28N W OF 125W 
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. BUILDING HIGH PRES BEHIND THE COLD 
FRONT WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST 
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...PRODUCING STRONG N-NW WINDS N OF THE 
AREA ALLOWING NW SWELL TO BUILD TO 10-12 FT E OF 120W NEAR BAJA.

$$
MUNDELL