000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220344
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC SUN SEP 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N97W TO 12N101W TO 11N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF TROUGH FROM 
08N TO 10N BETWEEN 87W-97W.

...DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE MAINLY W 
OF 110W ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED 
NEAR 23N117W THAT DOMINATES THE REGION. DRY STABLE MID-LEVEL AIR 
INHIBITING CONVECTION IN THE TROPICS W OF 100W. A WEAKENING COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 25N140W. 
THE FRONT WILL STALL TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE SUN. HIGH PRES WILL 
BUILD EASTWARD N OF THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SUN...TIGHTENING THE 
PRES GRADIENT N OF 30N AND ALLOWING NLY WINDS TO INCREASE...WITH 
SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8-9 FT NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA SUN. WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE ACROSS 
THE AREA. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE W OF 
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. NW SWELL FROM 
THIS FRONT WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 8-10 FT N OF 28N W OF 125W MON 
NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN BUILDING HIGH PRES BEHIND THE OLD 
FRONT WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST 
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...PRODUCING STRONG N-NW WINDS N OF THE 
AREA ALLOWING NW SWELL TO BUILD TO 10-12 FT E OF 120W NEAR BAJA.
 
$$
MUNDELL