000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210350
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC SAT SEP 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N100W TO 12N106W TO 12N133W TO 
10N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE MAINLY W 
OF 110W ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED 
NEAR 24N118W THAT DOMINATES THE REGION. DRY STABLE MID-LEVEL AIR 
IS PREVENTING CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING IN THE TROPICS. A COLD 
FRONT FROM 31N130W TO 26N145W BECOMING VERY DIFFUSE W OF 135W. 
THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 29N128W BY SAT 
EVENING THEN DISSIPATE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EASTWARD N OF THE 
FRONT THROUGH SUN AND TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT N OF 30N NEAR 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SEAS EXPECTED 
TO BUILD TO 8 FT NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUN. 
WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE ACROSS AREA. THERE ARE 
SMALL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ALONG COASTS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA...BUT MINIMAL SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE 
IN CONVECTION AND MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH SAT.

$$
MUNDELL