000 AXPZ20 KNHC 192130 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU SEP 19 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES FURTHER INLAND INTO SINALOA AND DURANGO STATES...CENTERED NEAR 25.7N 107.1W AT 2100 UTC MOVING NE AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT NEAR THE CENTER. FREQUENT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS EXPECTED INLAND...BUT MARINE CONDITIONS ARE RAPIDLY IMPROVING IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT IN FORECAST WATERS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N100W TO 13N103W TO 14N115W TO 11N132W...THEN TRANSITIONS TO AN ITCZ TO 09N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. ...DISCUSSION... SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH MANUEL NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. A BROAD RIDGE PREVAILS OVER NW PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDING SW FROM 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N134W TO AROUND 18N117W. HIGH WINDS N OF THE AREA ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA HAVE DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST 12-24 HOURS...AND NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 8 FT THIS EVENING. A SMALL AREA OF 8 FT SWELL IS LOCATED N OF 29N BETWEEN 121W AND 123W. A COLD FRONT FROM 40N133W TO 32N145W WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES 30N THROUGH FRI EVENING...BUT NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SWEEP SE INTO NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND 8 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED N OF 28N W OF 130W BY SAT MORNING. FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. $$ MUNDELL