000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191518
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC THU SEP 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE MANUEL IS MOVING INLAND INTO MEXICO NEAR 25.0N 107.8W 
AT 1500 UTC MOVING N OR 10 DEG AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 
65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRES 987 MB. 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM OF THE COAST OF 
MEXICO FROM 23N-25N. MANUEL IS INTERACTING WITH THE TERRAIN 
ALONG THE COASTLINE...AND DOES NOT APPEAR AS ORGANIZED AS IT DID 
EARLIER. MANUEL WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY ONCE IT MOVES OVER 
LAND...BUT FREQUENT MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND WIDESPREAD 
FLOODING IS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 15N101W TO 19N120W TO 11N130W. ITCZ FROM 
11N130W TO 9N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 
           
...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 22N127W WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING E TO 243115W AND ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDING W OF 
THE ANTICYCLONE TO 17N140W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND 
STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 05N W OF 115W. 
A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO 
FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 95W-103W.

AN AREA OF NW WINDS TO 20 KT IS N OF 27N BETWEEN 118W AND 123W 
ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL...THEN FORECAST TO 
SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY THIS EVENING.

FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE 
AREA.
 
$$
DGS