000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC THU SEP 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE MANUEL DRIFTING CLOSER TO THE SHORE IN THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA NEAR 24.7N 108.2W AT 0900 UTC MOVING N OR 355 DEG AT 
3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRES 987 MB. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 45 NM OF THE CENTER. MANUEL IS INTERACTING WITH THE 
TERRAIN ALONG THE COASTLINE...AND DOES NOT APPEAR AS ORGANIZED 
AS IT DID THIS PAST EVENING. MANUEL REMAINS CONSTRICTED BY THE 
NARROW TOPOGRAPHY OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHICH WILL LIMIT THE 
AVAILABLE FETCH TO GENERATE SEAS MUCH GREATER THAN 12 FT AS A 
MINIMAL HURRICANE. IT WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY ONCE IT MOVES OVER 
LAND...BUT FREQUENT MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND WIDESPREAD 
FLOODING IS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST OF SINALOA S OF 26N THROUGH 
EARLY FRI.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM PANAMA NEAR 08N78W...THEN INLAND 
ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO NW GUATEMALA. IT 
RESUMES FROM 17N112W TO 09N1352...THEN AS ITCZ TO BEYOND 
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA N OF 11N...AND N OF 11N 
BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. 
           
...DISCUSSION...

A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT PERSIST BETWEEN A 1020 MB HIGH PRES 
AREA CENTERED NEAR 23N135W AND TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA LEADING SOUTHWARD TO HURRICANE MANUEL IN THE SOUTHERN 
GULF. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 05 UTC INDICATED AN AREA OF 15 TO 20 KT 
NW TO N WINDS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA 
AND AS FAR W AS 125W N OF 25N. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM SEVERAL 
HOURS AGO ALSO INDICATED SEAS AS HIGH AS 8 TO 10 FT ALONG 119W N 
OF 25N. THIS IS DUE TO NW SWELL PUSHING S OF 30N...GENERATED BY 
PERSISTENT FRESH TO STRONG NW FLOW OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA. GLOBAL WAVE MODELS INDICATE THIS SWELL WILL SUBSIDE 
BELOW 8 FT LATER TODAY. WINDS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED OFF THE 
COAST OF BAJA...ESPECIALLY BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...INTO TONIGHT AS 
MANUEL SLOWLY WEAKENS EAST OF THE AREA.
 
A 03 UTC ASCAT PASS ALSO HINTED OF 15 TO 20 KT W WINDS OVER THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER 
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON THE NORTHERN TERMINUS OF THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THE CONVERGING SW TO W FLOW IN THIS AREA IS 
INITIATING AREAS OF MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 11N BETWEEN 95W AND 
100W. 

FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS 
THE FORECAST AREA.
 
$$
CHRISTENSEN