000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190340
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC THU SEP 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE MANUEL MOVING ONSHORE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 
24.6N 108.0W AT 0300 UTC MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRES 987 MB. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF 
THE CENTER. MANUEL HAS A RAGGED ILL-DEFINED EYE AND REMAINS IN A 
A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER WARM WATER...BUT IS CONSTRICTED BY 
THE NARROW TOPOGRAPHY OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHICH WILL LIMIT 
THE AVAILABLE FETCH TO GENERATE SEAS MUCH GREATER THAN 12 FT AS 
A MINIMAL HURRICANE. IT WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY ONCE IT MOVES OVER 
LAND...BUT FREQUENT MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND WIDESPREAD 
FLOODING IS LIKELY S OF 26N THROUGH EARLY FRI.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N98W TO 09N135W...THEN AS ITCZ 
FROM 09N135W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 97W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 95W AND 87W. 
           
...DISCUSSION...

SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ALONG 
THE W COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...MAINLY E OF 120W. ENHANCED 
WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
AND A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS NW PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA. SEAS ARE 
GENERALLY 7-8 FT IN THIS AREA...ALTHOUGH SEAS TO 9-10 FT ARE N 
OF 29N BETWEEN 118W AND 123W DUE TO NEAR-GALE NW WINDS OFF S 
CALIFORNIA COAST. NW TO N SWELL GREATER THAN 8 FT IS EXPECTED TO 
PUSH AS FAR S AS 27N BETWEEN 117W AND 124W TONIGHT...AND SUBSIDE 
BELOW 8 FT THU EVENING. FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL 
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
 
$$
MUNDELL