000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182140
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC WED SEP 18 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM MANUEL E OF SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
CENTERED NEAR 23.9N 108.1W AT 2100 UTC MOVING NNW OR 335 DEG AT 
4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRES 988 MB. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS  
WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. MANUEL HAS RAPIDLY GAINED CONVECTIVE 
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST 6-9 HOURS WITH A RAGGED ILL-DEFINED 
EYE EVIDENT IN VISUAL IMAGERY...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A 
HURRICANE THIS EVENING. IT REMAINS IN A A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT 
OVER WARM WATER...BUT IS CONSTRICTED BY THE NARROW TOPOGRAPHY OF 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AVAILABLE FETCH TO 
GENERATE SEAS GREATER THAN 12 TO 15 FT AS A HURRICANE. IT WILL 
WEAKEN RAPIDLY ONCE IT MOVES OVER LAND...BUT FREQUENT MODERATE 
TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS LIKELY S OF 26N 
THROUGH FRI.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N98W TO 09N135W...THEN AS ITCZ 
FROM 09N135W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W.
           
...DISCUSSION...

SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ALONG 
THE W COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...MAINLY E OF 120W. ENHANCED 
WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
AND A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS NW PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA. SEAS ARE 
GENERALLY 7-8 FT IN THIS AREA...ALTHOUGH SEAS TO 9-10 FT ARE N 
OF 29N BETWEEN 118W AND 123W DUE TO NEAR-GALE NW WINDS OFF S 
CALIFORNIA COAST. NW TO N SWELL GREATER THAN 8 FT IS EXPECTED TO 
PUSH AS FAR S AS 27N BETWEEN 117W AND 124W TONIGHT...AND SUBSIDE 
BELOW 8 FT THU EVENING. FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL 
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
 
$$
MUNDELL