000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181533
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC WED SEP 18 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM MANUEL SE OF SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
CENTERED NEAR 23.4N 107.8W AT 1500Z MOVING NNW OR 330 DEG AT 3 
KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRES 1000 MB. MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
NOTED WITHIN 110 NM OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 22N-25N. THE 
STORM IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 
DAYS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER WARM WATERS...THEN WEAKEN 
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OR THE BAJA PENINSULA.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 15N105W TO 11N125W TO 10N135W. ITCZ 10N135W 
TO 8N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
           
...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 22N127W WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING E TO 24N126W AND ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDING W OF 
THE ANTICYCLONE TO 22N140W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND 
STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 12N W OF 110W. 
A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW MEXICO TO THE 
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC.

AN AREA OF NW WINDS TO 20 KT IS N OF 29N BETWEEN 117W AND 122W 
ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS TO 8 FT...THEN FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 
FT THROUGH LATE THU.
 
$$
DGS