000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180954
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC WED SEP 18 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL...SE OF SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA CENTERED NEAR 23.2N 107.8W AT 18/0900Z MOVING NW OR 
320 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRES 1002 MB. MODERATE TO STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 90 NM IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE 
CENTER OF MANUEL. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY 
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT 
OVER WARM WATERS...THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N104W TO 10N130W TO 
008N135W...THEN TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 07N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED. 
           
...DISCUSSION...

AN ASCAT PASS FROM 05 UTC INDICATED NW 15 TO 20 KT WINDS 
PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST OF THE ENTIRE BAJA 
PENINSULA...GENERALLY E OF 120W. THE ENHANCED WINDS ARE LOCATED 
BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND A RIDGE 
EXTENDING ROUGHLY W TO E FROM HIGH PRES CENTERED WELL N OF THE 
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. ALTIMETER PASSES AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS 
INDICATE SEAS ARE GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FT IN THIS AREA...ALTHOUGH 
SEAS TO 8 FT ARE LIKELY N OF 29N DUE WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN 
CONSISTENTLY 20 KT SINCE YESTERDAY. NW TO N SWELL IS EXPECTED TO 
PUSH AS FAR S AS 27N BETWEEN 118W AND 122W DUE TO FRESH TO 
STRONG N FLOW OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 
FT THU. 

THE UPPER PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING ALONG ROUGHLY 22N 
WITH A BREAK IN THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
WHERE T.D. MANUEL IS REGENERATING. THE UPPER PATTERN AND MOISTURE 
LEVELS ARE NOT TOO CONDUCIVE FOR EXTENSIVE CONVECTION AT THIS 
TIME...AND THE CONVECTION AROUND MANUEL IS LIMITED AS A RESULT 
COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WHEN UPPER TROUGHING THE W OF 
THE AREA SUPPORTED LARGE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE COAST 
OF CENTRAL MEXICO. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FAIRLY LOW SHEAR...WARM 
WATER TEMPERATURES...AND RELATIVELY LOW PRES IN THIS AREA...SOME 
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. 

COASTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF 
PANAMA AND IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CURRENTLY...BUT THIS 
ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY NOCTURNAL IN NATURE WILL LIKELY DIMINISH OVER 
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS PERSIST.
 
$$
CHRISTENSEN