000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180314
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC WED SEP 18 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM MANUEL...REGENERATED...SE OF SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA CENTERED NEAR 23.0N 107.7W AT 18/0300Z MOVING NW OR 
315 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRES 1002 MB. CONVECTIVE 
ORGANIZATION NEAR THE CENTER IS IMPROVING. IT IS EXPECTED TO 
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS IN A LOW SHEAR 
ENVIRONMENT OVER WARM WATERS... THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS 
THE BAJA PENINSULA.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
            
MONSOON TROUGH OVER LAND E OF 87W. WESTERN PORTION OF MONSOON 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S OF T.D. MANUEL NEAR 14N106W TO 09N120W TO 
11N127W TO 07N137W...THEN TRANSITIONS TO AN ITCZ TO 06N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 
106W AND 110W. 

...DISCUSSION...

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS NW PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA. LIMITED 
RANDOM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FAIRLY WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE S 
OF THE RIDGE. MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE REGION... 
WITH SEA HEIGHTS GENERALLY 5-6 FT EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF 7-8 FT 
SEAS N OF 24N E OF 120W AND SMALL AREA OF 7 FT SEAS WITHIN 180 
NM N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 134W. STRONG NW WINDS OFF THE 
COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL PRODUCE 9-10 FT SWELL THAT IS 
EXPECTED TO SWEEP S OF 30N WED MORNING BETWEEN 118W AND 124W... 
AND PERSIST THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED 
ELSEWHERE. MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF 
LOW PRES APPEAR TO HAVE POTENTIAL TO BECOME TROPICAL CYCLONES.
 
$$
MUNDELL