000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172130
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC TUE SEP 17 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL HAS SPRUNG BACK TO LIFE SE OF THE 
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. MANUEL IS CENTERED NEAR 22.6N 
107.4W MOVING NW OR 320 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 
KT GUSTS 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRES 1004 MB. SAT 
IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IS INCREASING. IT IS 
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS 
IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER WARM WATERS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
            
MONSOON TROUGH OVER LAND E OF 87W. WESTERN PORTION OF MONSOON 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S OF T.D. MANUEL NEAR 15N106W TO 09N119W TO 
11N126W TO 08N135W...THEN TRANSITIONS TO AN ITCZ TO 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 10N E OF 90W. 

...DISCUSSION...

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS NW PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA. LIMITED 
RANDOM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FAIRLY WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE S 
OF THE RIDGE. MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE REGION... 
WITH SEA HEIGHTS GENERALLY 5 TO 6 FT EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF 7 FT 
SEAS N OF 24N E OF 120W AND SMALL AREA OF 7 FT SEAS WITHIN 180 
NM N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 134W. STRONG NW WINDS OFF THE 
COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL PRODUCE 9-10 FT SWELL THAT IS 
EXPECTED TO SWEEP S OF 30N WED MORNING BETWEEN 118W AND 124W... 
AND PERSIST THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED 
ELSEWHERE. MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF 
LOW PRES WITH POTENTIAL TO BECOME TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EVIDENT.
 
$$
MUNDELL