000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171527
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC TUE SEP 17 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
TWDWE
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF MANUEL NEAR 22N106W WITH CONVECTION 
WITHIN 120 NM OF COAST OF MEXICO FROM 21N-25N. THE LOW HAS THE 
POSSIBLY OF RE-DEVELOPING BACK TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT 
DRIFTS NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
            
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 15N106W TO 11N125W TO 9N132W. ITCZ FROM 
9N132W TO 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 3N-8N E OF 
81W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 22N128W WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDED ENE TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 10N W OF 115W. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM NW MEXICO TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA 
PENINSULA. 

ELSEWHERE...LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS PERSIST W OF 110W.

A PUSH OF NW WINDS TO 20 KT IS FORECAST TO MOVE S OF 30N BETWEEN 
119W AND 123W STARTING TONIGHT THROUGH WED...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 
TO 8 FT...BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT THROUGH LATE WED. 
RELATIVELY BENIGN MARINE WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN 
ELSEWHERE.
 
$$
DGS