000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170907
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC TUE SEP 17 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
            
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NW COLOMBIA THEN ALONG THE 
PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA... 
WHERE IT REMAINS FRACTURED...THEN RESUMES FROM 12N108W TO 
09N120W TO 10N128W TO 07N134W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO 
ITCZ...CONTINUING ON BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA N OF 04N...AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA FROM WESTERN PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANT LOW PRES CENTER OF MANUEL WAS CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE 
OF THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO NEAR LAS TRES MARIAS 
ISLANDS...DRIFTING NW. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1006 MB. 
THE LOW PRES SEEMS TO BE LOSING DEFINITION...AND WILL LIKELY 
MERGE WITH A TROUGH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. A 
LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FLARING ON THE 
NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW PRES WITHIN 90 NM OF THE MEXICAN COAST 
FROM 21N TO 24N. THIS IS IN AN AREA WHERE EASTERLY FLOW ON THE N 
SIDE OF THE LOW IS CONVERGING WITH MODERATE TO FRESH W TO NW 
FLOW S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AS NOTED IN 
04 UTC ASCAT PASS. ANOTHER ASCAT PASS FROM 0530 UTC INDICATED 
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW E OF 120W TO THE COAST OF THE 
BAJA PENINSULA...BETWEEN A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA...AND A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING E TO W FROM A HIGH 
PRES AREA CENTERED WELL N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AN EARLIER 
ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT IN THIS AREA.

ELSEWHERE...LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS PERSIST W OF 110W.

PERSISTENT FRESH TO STRONG SW FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 
110W SEEMS TO HAVE FINALLY DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT...AS NOTED IN 
THE 0430 UTC ASCAT PASS. SEAS ARE STILL LIKELY REACHING 8 FT IN 
SW SWELL WITHIN 180 NM OF THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF 
GUERRERO...BETWEEN 98W AND 102W...AND SOME MODERATE RISK OF RIP 
CURRENTS WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY TODAY. THE SEAS SHOULD 
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TO 4 TO 6 FT AS THE 
WINDS DIMINISH. 

FARTHER EAST...LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW IS CONVERGING WITH 
OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO 
PRODUCE THE CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 
WESTERN PANAMA TO GUATEMALA...AND ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHERN 
COLOMBIA.

A PUSH OF NW WINDS TO 20 KT IS FORECAST TO PUSH S OF 30N BETWEEN 
118W AND 123W STARTING TONIGHT THROUGH WED...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 
TO 8 FT...BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT THROUGH LATE WED. 
RELATIVELY BENIGN MARINE WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN 
ELSEWHERE.
 
$$
CHRISTENSEN