000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141613 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI SEP 13 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM MANUEL CENTERED NEAR 16.2N 102.4W 994 MB OR ABOUT 125 NM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO AT 14/1500 UTC MOVING NE AT 05 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT WITHIN 50 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERD MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IN BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE. OVERALL...THE CLOUD PATTERN AND BANDING FEATURES OF MANUEL ARE CONTINING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH TIME. THE SHIP " THE DUSSELDORF EXPRESS" TO THE N OF THE MANUEL NEAR 17N103W REPORTED 40 KT WINDS AND A PRESSUE OF ABOUT 997 MB EARLIER THIS MORNING SHORLTY AFTER 12 UTC. MANUEL IS FORECAST TO STRENGHTNEN SLIGHTLY TO 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT NEAR 17.0N 102.6W THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE JUST INLAND THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18.3N 103.2W BY EARLY SUN AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT NEARS 19.5N 104.0W BY SUN EVENING. A LARGE SWATH OF SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE SE AND S OF MANUEL THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STRONG TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 102W-106W WHERE STRONG TO NEAR S- SW GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE INTO THE COAST OF MEXICO. AN ELONGATED LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE EXTENDS FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...SW ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO NEAR 10N110W. BOTH TROPICAL STORM MANUEL AND TROPICAL STORM INGRID...IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS ELONGATED CIRCULATION...WHICH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS BROADER CIRCULATION AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND INLAND ACROSS COASTAL MEXICO IN THE GENERAL AREA OF MANZANILLO SUNDAY MORNING. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITHIN THE ELONGATED GYRE WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND WILL BE EXACERBATED BY TROPICAL STORM MANUEL. HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH MANUEL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES STARTING TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINOUS COASTLINE OF CENTRAL MEXICO. PLEASE SEE WMO HEADER/AWIPS HEADERS WTPZ23 KNHC/MIATCMEP3 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NW COLOMBIA NW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO CENTRAL GUATEMALA WHERE IT FRACTURES...THEN RESUMES FROM NEAR 12N112W TO 09N121W TO 10N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LOW MIGRATING W FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO IS COMING INTO PHASE WITH A SHARP MID LATITUDE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO N CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS COMBINED UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES SWD TO NEAR 16N110W. WHILE THIS SET-UP CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION E OF 106W...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND A BROAD ANTICYCLONE CENTERED W OF THE AREA NEAR 23N123W IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION W OF 105W EXCEPT S OF 15N WHERE FRESH TO STRONG SW FLOW IS ALLOWING CONVECTION TO PULSE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 200 NM W OF MANUEL. FARTHER NORTH...ASCAT DATA FROM LAST NIGHT ALONG WITH ALTIMETER PASSES FROM THIS MORNING HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW NW TO N WINDS UP TO 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 7 FT OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR OUT TO 115W...BETWEEN THE LOWER PRES OFF CENTRAL MEXICO AND WEAK HIGH PRES OVER THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS REVELAS THAT A WEAK PRES PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA W OF ABOUT 110W AND E OF 95W WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAILING. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE GYRE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH THE STRONG SW FLOW DIMINISHING INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 115W. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS WELL. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT THE COMBINED MARINE HAZARDS OF ROUGH SEAS AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM WESTERN OAXACA THROUGH GUERRERO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. $$ AGUIRRE